Probability

Dr. Gupta is now my primary care physician. He has seen me for weekly visits for several months. I trust him. He stares into my soul and says I am in the high risk pool. I like to feel I am at the edge of that pool, barely dipping my toe into the water. But at 74, I guess I am in the deep end. He states flatly, I have a 4% risk of death from this nasty Coronavirus. While that seems tolerable, I resent that younger adults have less risk. My risk is ten times higher than most adults, in fact.

Is that fair? I have worked hard all my life, paid my taxes, voted regularly and I am generally polite to all. So why do I and the rest of us in our Golden Years deserve this kind of treatment? Ok, yes, we did pollute the world, start a few wars, melt the icecaps, and create The Happy Meal. But still, that’s no way to treat us.

As I reflect on the 4% figure, I wonder if I have a 4% risk of dying in the next year even without the help of Corona. Maybe I’m at 8% now though with the added Corona risk. That’s getting a bit uncomfortable. If I take Metamucil daily, drive only between 10 and 11 AM, take double vitamins, turn off the news, and put more money in the church collection plate- will that counteract my sad risk factors?

And what about other choices I must make based on statistics. There is an 80% chance of thunderstorms in Florida today. But that’s not all day. There’s also a slight chance of a tornado, albeit a small tornado. But what if you happen to be under one of those small funnels that is trying to move you and your lazy boy down the street? Is it so “minimal” then?

The movie I want to watch on Netflix has a 97% critics’ rating but only a 67% viewers’ rating. Should I go with the experts? Besides, that’s the rating for the whole movie. Maybe there’s a scene in it that will change my life (for the better hopefully) even if the rest of it is a waste. Maybe I will love one character and ignore the rest. How can I decide?

While I’m at it, I’ve sprayed all surfaces with Lysol. It kills 99% of germs. But what if the one germ it misses is a bad one that will kill me. Maybe I should spray my whole body since I read there are billions of bacteria crawling all over my skin just itching, pardon the expression, to come on in and take up residence.

There’s also a possible gain from some newly discovered chemical found in octopus. It’s supposed to improve my memory by 70% according to the very concerned doctor on TV. By the way, how did they determine this? Did they give IQ tests to the octopuses? Or did they accidentally find that seniors who just ate octopus suddenly remembered where they parked their car? The down side of improved memory is that I might remember more of the hazards I face with every breath I take. Maybe I will pass on this one.

Here’s another one. The planet is warming at a faster rate than ever before. This is caused by deforestation, massive outdoor barbecues, and farting cows and it’s getting serious. Old overweight seniors with sagging body parts are trying to squeeze into shorts every day. That’s a serious health crisis. The growing warmth of the planet is also encouraging various viruses and diseases to flourish. Of course some say that humans eating bats caused the Corona thing. Either way, we’re in trouble.

I read that an asteroid the size of Cleveland whizzed by the earth last year narrowly missing us. I think I also read somewhere that there is an 8% chance that an asteroid will hit the earth in the next twenty years, wiping out life as we know it and returning us to the prehistoric ice age. According to scientists, even Bruce Willis can’t save us.  On the bright side, the asteroid hit may cancel out the global warming.

So, the bottom line is that life is a huge risk. The risk of death is 100% according to Dr. Gupta. Since I am helpless, I will opt to sip a nice gin and tonic, munch on some fried bat wings and sit outside under a tree and await the funnel cloud.